Climate Change Impact on Inflow and Nutrient Loads to a Warm Monomictic Lake

This study analyses the impact of climate change on inflows, sediment loads, and nutrient inputs to Sabalan dam reservoir, a warm monomictic lake located northwest Iran. For this purpose, Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated (2005–2018) validated (2001–2004). Future climate-based data under AR5 emission scenarios were obtained from HadGEM2–ES general circulation model then downscaled using LARSWG 6.0. The tuned SWAT used investigate hydrological processes pollution loads reservoir. Our findings based Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient determination indicated an acceptable performance in simulation Inflow load reservoir will increase during period 2030–2070 compared base (1998–2018). annual total nitrogen (phosphorus) by 8.5% (9.4%), 7.3% (8.2%), 5% (3.4%) RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5, respectively. An significantly exacerbate eutrophic condition, leading water quality deterioration with acute consequences for positive functions dam.